The Big Game
Jan 1979….The Super Bowl….Pittsburgh Steelers and the Dallas Cowboys … The Cowboys, known also as “America’s team” thanks to a nationwide fan base, were 3 1/2 point underdogs. Bag, who was in the eighth grade at the time, thought there was no way they could lose. It was a sure thing. So he gambled all the money he could get his hands on at the time, including his lunch money. As fate would have it, the game came down to one play at the goal line. Roger Staubach, hall of fame quarterback for the cowboys dropped back to pass, and threw a dart to his undefended tight end, Jackie “no hands” Smith. The ball hit him in the chest between the Eight and the One on his jersey and then fell to the ground. With that play, the Steelers held on for a 35-31 victory, and the 3 1/2 points were not enough to save Bag’s lunch money. For those interested in reliving the agony, there is a 13 second YouTube clip here:
That was just one, in a long line of Super Bowls in which Bag has had a financial interest. The allure of betting NFL games is easy to understand. It’s an unscripted 3 hour drama complete with both heroes and goats, while also serving as a temporary respite from the harsh realities of day to day life. There is of course, no better place to spend Super Bowl weekend soaking in the atmosphere than Las Vegas Nevada. Bag, being a creature of habit, has spent at least 30 Super bowls in Vegas which has provided him with some incredible stories. Here are just a couple of his favorites ….
February 2004 … Tom Brady’s New England Patriots and the Carolina Panthers. Bag was staying at New York-New York casino. At the time, “key cards” to get into your room was new technology, and didn’t quite have all the kinks worked out. An older gentleman with a bellman in tow staying across the hall was unable to get his card to work. So he sent the bellman to get a new card. We offered him a place to sit in our room while he waited. As it turned out, that old guy was Tommy Lasorda, a World Series winning manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers known for his attention to detail. He was having a catered soiree in his suite for the game and invited us over. The highlight of the day was not the dozen or so celebrities in attendance, but rather it was the halftime show. You might remember it better as the Janet Jackson “wardrobe malfunction” Super Bowl, which Bag refers to as Nipplegate.
Bag has always had a fascination with psychology, and as you are about to see - that halftime show provided some remarkable insight into the power of the human psyche. Bag was standing about five feet from the TV, staring intently as Janet’s wardrobe *ahem* malfunctioned. The first thing through Bag’s mind was - no fckin way, that didn’t happen, the Network would never allow that, I must be seeing things. So bag turns to the guy next to him and said “Did you see that?” The guy said “See what?” Undeterred, Bag asked the next guy over, “Did YOU see that?” He responded, “I don’t know what you are talking about.” At that moment, from across the room, 30 feet away, Tommy said in a loud voice “I saw it.” There was at least a dozen of us in the room that day watching the show, and the only person able to suspend disbelief and acknowledge the reality of what our own eyes saw, was Lasorda. Almost everyone in that room said no, that didn’t happen. There were only two of us, who thought, well, maybe. But Tommy, he was the only one who was certain enough to believe his own eyes. Amazing.
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Feb 2007 …. Indianapolis Colts and the Chicago Bears. Bag is from the Chicagoland area, and has been a devout fan of the Bears his whole life. So this was a particularly exciting Super Bowl weekend. Saturday night before the big game Bag took his clan out to the Penn & Teller theatre for a magic show - which by the way was yet another master class on suspending disbelief. One of Penn & Teller’s signature tricks is known as the magic bullets trick - link below. Penn asked if anyone in the audience had a firearms license, to which Bag and about twenty others raised their hand. Wouldn’t you know it, Bag was called up on stage to assist Penn with the trick.
Bag was tasked with verifying the gun and bullet were indeed real, which they were. He was then asked to “initial” the copper tip of the bullet, which he did with a marker. He was then asked to draw something unique on the casing of the bullet which he could identify after the bullet was fired. Bag, who is not much of an artist drew a stickman as best he could. Penn asked who it was, to which Bag responded as any self-respecting Bears fan would, that is Devin Hester spiking the football after returning the opening kickoff for a Touchdown in tomorrow’s game. That response drew a mixed reaction from the crowd, everything robust laughter to Booing.
Bag bet the farm on the Bears that weekend, and should have lost his ass. But wouldn’t you know it, right on cue, Devin Hester returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown. That was the only winning bet of the trip. Fortunately, it paid 30-1, and got Bag most of his money back. To this day, Bag wonders if any of the thousand or so people in the theatre that night listened, and put a few shekels on Hester.
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Fast forward to today, it’s the Saturday before the big game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. As is the case with most Superbowls, Bag is not a fan of either team, but that doesn’t mean he won’t take a financial interest. The key to successful sports betting is to be a contrarian. Figure out which way the masses are betting, and go the other way. The crowd, just like in the financial markets is almost always wrong. To determine which way the crowd is betting, Bag uses a simple barometer, his own eyes. At a gas station on the drive up, the guy at the next pump had a Mahomes Jersey on… the car next to me in the parking garage had a Chiefs bumper sticker…. Two different guys at my poker table had KC garb on. It’s KC everywhere you look. Bag has asked several people who they think will win, and they all like Kansas City to win big. Having been in Las Vegas for three days now, and yet to see anyone sporting Eagles gear means:
It’s Philly & Under 48.5 for me - of course this is not financial advice ….