Is it Bitcoin or Bit-Con
Bagholder has spent considerable time trying to wrap my head around exactly why Bitcoin should be considered a good investment. Any good investment, no matter the asset class (stocks, bonds, real estate, crypto, etc...) has to have a component of VALUE. There are no exceptions to this. So Bagholder's first question to Bitcoin bulls is always "Where is the value in owning Bitcoin?" What follows today are some of the more common bullish arguments Bagholder has heard to date.
1. The blockchain technology is here to stay, Bitcoin was the first to take advantage of that technology.
Bagholder believes there is no doubt blockchain is here to stay. Even a tech simpleton like myself can see the benefits of blockchain technology. Bitcoin was indeed among the first to show the world these benefits. The business world however, is littered with bankrupt companies who got there first: Betamax had tapes on the market before VHS, Motorola had phones out long before Apple, Blockbuster was in the movie business long before Netflix. Being first, ok its a feather in your cap, it does not mean what you are doing has value. Bagholder is struggling to make the leap from bitcoin being first, to bitcoin having value. The former does not always give rise to the latter.
2. The price of bitcoin has been going up, you want value? Just look at the returns.
It is true, the price of Bitcoin has risen sharply the last decade. Assuming in the future more people continue to buy bitcoin, than want to sell it - then yes, that uptrend is likely to continue. Does this equate to value? Bagholder can't make this leap either. Beanie babies went up in price for a long time, it doesn't mean they have value. Pogs went up too, where are they today? Tulips in the 17th century skyrocketed in price for years, didn't mean they were valuable. Rising prices are seductive, no doubt; but they do not in anyway equate to value.
3. It is a decentralized form of currency, outside the system.
A decentralized form of currency (love it) outside the system (love it). Bagholder is on board with all of it - if only it were viable. The financial system we have now, with a centrally controlled, constantly diluted currency, is an absolute nightmare for almost everyone. The one group who does benefit from this current system are the ones doing the printing (Gman). The US Government (and their military) is arguably the most powerful entity on the planet. All their power stems from the ability to create money out of thin air. Take away that ability, and suddenly Gman has no way to pay the military, and no way to fund wars. They are de-fanged in an instant.
So along comes bitcoin, promising to do just that. Do you really believe Gman is just going to roll over with their legs in the air and say "go ahead and fuck me, take all my power away"? You bitcoin bulls are kidding yourselves if you think that is the case. Look no further than Gmans handbook/blueprint, Orwell's 1984...
"No one ever seizes power with the intention of relinquishing it".
Simply put, there is no chance Gman just allows bitcoin to takeover the financial world without doing everything they can to stop it.
4. It can not be diluted, or inflated away by banks or government.
It is true, government cannot dilute or inflate away the value of bitcoin. There is however, a third option. What do you suppose happens to the price of bitcoin when Gman makes it illegal and comes out with their own Central bank digital currency, much like China is doing? When that announcement comes from our leaders, Bitcoin will lose 90% of its value overnight.
There is one way Bagholder can see bitcoin surviving. What if things are not as they seem? What if the US government is Satoshi Nakamoto? This would mean Bitcoin - which is marketed as decentralized, private, anonymous, and uncontrollable - is really none of the above. There is a distinct possibility, Bitcoin is nothing more than a Gman controlled creation. Not what you bulls want to hear, I know. It would however, go a long way towards explaining why they haven't made it illegal yet.
5. There is a degree of privacy & anonymity bitcoin has, which bank accounts do not.
Bagholder does see value in privacy, nobody wants banks (and by extension Gman) knowing everything you do. Imagine the plumber who fixes the slab leak in your garage. You hand him a Visa, he runs the charge, and now your bank, his bank, Visa corp, and Gman are all in the loop on this transaction. Bitcoin bulls claim paying the plumber out of your crypto wallet will shrink the circle of those in the loop to just you and the plumber. Nothing could be further from the truth.
When you conduct a bitcoin transaction, it gets posted to the blockchain. Which means that transaction is suddenly on computers all over the world. Any tech savvy 14 year old sitting in his parents basement, eating cheetohs, and scratching his nuts can find the transaction. Right about now, I can hear you Bitcoin bulls saying, yeah, but because the transaction is cryptographically encoded, all the 14 year old knows is wallet ABC sent X number of bitcoin to wallet XYZ - so privacy has been maintained. I'm calling BS on this too.
About 6 months ago the Colonial pipeline was hacked & shut down - google it. The perpetrators (relying on anonymity & privacy) demanded the ransom be paid in Bitcoin, which it was. In less than 48 hours, the DOJ got the bitcoin back and identified the hackers - who are presently residing in some dark, dank Eastern European dungeon prison cell. According to Forbes, it was the bitcoin transaction which allowed the DOJ to catch them. If gman can do it to them, they can do it to you. Bagholder is of the opinion, with only the bitcoin registry to look at, gman will have an easier time tracking transactions than the present day method of sifting through the records of multiple banks.
You want privacy? Hand the plumber a stack of twenties, a gold coin, or a silver bar. When you do that, the only people aware of the transaction is you and him. No government, no banks, no blockchain. You can not be more private.
6. It’s digital gold
It is not by accident they choose to call it digital Gold. Psychologically, Gold confers a high degree of stability, safety, and security. The benefits of associating bitcoin with Gold are obvious. They do it to mask the flaws of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is one of the most volatile investments on the planet, hardly what I would call "stable". In fact, the price is down 50% in just the last couple months, not exactly what Bagholder would call "safe". As for "Secure", Bagholder has a difficult time understanding how secure something could be if it is posted on computers all over the world.
Assume Bitcoin was digital gold, and like they say, provided stability, safety, and security. Why would anyone want a digital copy of anything when the real thing is available? Would you prefer to spend tonight with a digital supermodel, or the actual supermodel? There is no comparison as copies of anything, digital or not, are never as good as the original. Simply put, there is no sense in owning "digital gold" when you can get your hands on the real thing.
7. Once you own a bitcoin, you can "stake" it, meaning lend it out at interest of 2 percent a month risk free!!
Of all the arguments coming out of the mouths of bitcoin bulls, this is the one which amazes Bagholder the most. Supposedly there are companies willing to pay you monthly interest, in exchange for you loaning them your bitcoin. It is hard to fathom there are people out there with 3 digit IQ's who truly believe this is anything other than a Ponzi scheme. Warren Buffet, arguably the most succesful investor of all time and one of the richest men on the planet, got that way by getting a 20.6% average annual return (compounded for decades of course). But now, in this new era, they expect Bagholder to believe there are companies out there paying a return of 24% a year - risk free?? It is, for lack of a better word, delusional.
Bagholder is pleading with any of you reading this. Help me understand where the value is in Bitcoin. DM me, leave a comment, a link, email me - whatever you have to do. I just can't see it, and need your help. Thanks.
After the example of Canadian government freezing personal property in banks, what do you think about a case for cryptocurrency? And keeping some money outside of the regular banking system? It appears quite arbitrary that the government can declare whoever to be not in the good books and seize their money?
What if the Gman ….can’t stop it ?
Making something” illegal “ is one thing, making it disappear from use is entirely different.
Think drugs.
Even if the Gman created and released BTC into the wild ( highly unlikely!) that doesn’t mean they control it. It’s open source software.
Look. The “value” in anything is what someone is willing to pay for it. Er’body knows that. “Value” changes over time and markets of course. Old man yells at clouds …about the ridiculous “value” of TSLA, BTC, AMC- matters not. The current price reflects its underlying value.
Tulip mania. What a silly and oft repeated analogy. So Tulip bubble occurred and popped- gone forever, right. Tulips never regained their high/glory, right ? Fool me once… BTC has gone from zero $ in 2009 to about $20,000 today -14 Years later. 14 years and not just still kicking but thriving. Tulip was one rise, one bust, done forever. BTC has gone through many 70% drawdowns over the years and yet claws back to higher values over the long term. Explain how that is in any way analogous to Tulip Mania?
Currencies on average have about a 250 yr shelf life of being on top. How comfortable are you with USD continuing that role for the next 50,100 yrs? I’d wager you that BTC will outlive the USD as we know it. Unfortunately you won’t be around to pay and I won’t be alive to receive payment.
Gold bugs. I get it. Gold is a confidence asset just like BTC. Like BTC it’s ONLY reasonable use is store of value. It’s not priced at $1800/oz bc it’s pretty or used industrially . No it’s priced MUCH higher than it’s practical physical use cases. Gold is valuable ONLY bc it can’t be readily debased/inflated. And that is solely bc it’s rare and difficult to mine.
So BTC is crazy nonsense! You can’t “hold” it !!! Oh my ! As if that’s a prerequisite of value- do you “ hold” your USD ? Sure prob about 1% or less of what you own. The rest is a data entry on a computer at your bank etc. Do you snuggle up at night w your JNJ stock certificates ? It’s a data entry. Crazy? Imagine you are an alien visiting earth for the 1st time and watching the gold environment. First you see immense amounts of effort , machinery , labor being used to dig up millions of pounds of rock in dangerous locations across the world. Then tiny amounts of a yellow metal are extracted from this mess. Much more Money and time and effort is spent congealing this raw gold into minted bars and coins. These heavy items are then shipped across the world (w paid insurance) to gold dealers. Who then put them into safes and spend considerable effort in securing these small otherwise no-value, worthless coins. The dealer eventually sells this chunk of metal to Joe 6 pack. Joe forks over paper USD he’s earned by his own labor ,smiles, takes possession of these small gold coins. He then immediately places them in his own safe. The gold then sits there in the dark never ever doing anything useful other than providing confidence that it is THE store of value.
And you think BTC is crazy ?