Bagholder has spent considerable time trying to wrap my head around exactly why Bitcoin should be considered a good investment. Any good investment, no matter the asset class (stocks, bonds, real estate, crypto, etc...) has to have a component of VALUE. There are no exceptions to this. So Bagholder's first question to Bitcoin bulls is always
Just one more investment vehicle created to defraud those gullible enough to buy it. I love the block-chain technology, but the rest of it can go pound sand. There is no value, just the perception created by those who offer it, and so on. Group think made this what it is today...good thing not everyone buys into it. if you want a store of value, buys something tangible...something that won't disappear as soon as you turn off the power.
I think it has value, just like any other Ponzi scheme!! As long people keep buying into the narrative it will keep going up. But as you mentioned in another post there are those who play the game, and then there are those who make the game. I still wish there was an easier to transport and anonymous alternative to fiat money.
After the example of Canadian government freezing personal property in banks, what do you think about a case for cryptocurrency? And keeping some money outside of the regular banking system? It appears quite arbitrary that the government can declare whoever to be not in the good books and seize their money?
Yes, Gman can freeze bank accounts, they can also outlaw Crypto - and if push comes to shove, they will - See #3 above. Keeping some assets outside the system is a must - Gold, Silver, Ammo, Canned food, a Garden, etc... - just can't put crypto on the list until someone can show me the value.
Your instinct is right :) although there is a case for blockchains and their exponential adoption I doubt it will be Bitcoin. CBDC will not happen the way people imagine in my view. In the end a company the size of Google apple or meta will provide the blockchain as a infrastructure and CBDC will piggybag. I won’t state my favorite in this game but there are some people/companies approaching it in a reasonable way. But I watch them like a tech company and not as a new currency. The cryptocurrency aspect of the blockchain is required to facilitate the decentralized allocation of resources - but it’s not a means by itself. Bitcoin Maxis are definitely some of the most childish people - or let’s say religious fanatics. It will be a sight to see when they have their chism and join maybe other projects - the mental gymnastics will be hilarious :)
Yes, by centralizing the block chain - there will be more control by whatever entity is running it…..CBDC is a when, not an if in my view…. Our overlords are far too addicted to the power coining money gives them to ever let that go private.
Making something” illegal “ is one thing, making it disappear from use is entirely different.
Think drugs.
Even if the Gman created and released BTC into the wild ( highly unlikely!) that doesn’t mean they control it. It’s open source software.
Look. The “value” in anything is what someone is willing to pay for it. Er’body knows that. “Value” changes over time and markets of course. Old man yells at clouds …about the ridiculous “value” of TSLA, BTC, AMC- matters not. The current price reflects its underlying value.
Tulip mania. What a silly and oft repeated analogy. So Tulip bubble occurred and popped- gone forever, right. Tulips never regained their high/glory, right ? Fool me once… BTC has gone from zero $ in 2009 to about $20,000 today -14 Years later. 14 years and not just still kicking but thriving. Tulip was one rise, one bust, done forever. BTC has gone through many 70% drawdowns over the years and yet claws back to higher values over the long term. Explain how that is in any way analogous to Tulip Mania?
Currencies on average have about a 250 yr shelf life of being on top. How comfortable are you with USD continuing that role for the next 50,100 yrs? I’d wager you that BTC will outlive the USD as we know it. Unfortunately you won’t be around to pay and I won’t be alive to receive payment.
Gold bugs. I get it. Gold is a confidence asset just like BTC. Like BTC it’s ONLY reasonable use is store of value. It’s not priced at $1800/oz bc it’s pretty or used industrially . No it’s priced MUCH higher than it’s practical physical use cases. Gold is valuable ONLY bc it can’t be readily debased/inflated. And that is solely bc it’s rare and difficult to mine.
So BTC is crazy nonsense! You can’t “hold” it !!! Oh my ! As if that’s a prerequisite of value- do you “ hold” your USD ? Sure prob about 1% or less of what you own. The rest is a data entry on a computer at your bank etc. Do you snuggle up at night w your JNJ stock certificates ? It’s a data entry. Crazy? Imagine you are an alien visiting earth for the 1st time and watching the gold environment. First you see immense amounts of effort , machinery , labor being used to dig up millions of pounds of rock in dangerous locations across the world. Then tiny amounts of a yellow metal are extracted from this mess. Much more Money and time and effort is spent congealing this raw gold into minted bars and coins. These heavy items are then shipped across the world (w paid insurance) to gold dealers. Who then put them into safes and spend considerable effort in securing these small otherwise no-value, worthless coins. The dealer eventually sells this chunk of metal to Joe 6 pack. Joe forks over paper USD he’s earned by his own labor ,smiles, takes possession of these small gold coins. He then immediately places them in his own safe. The gold then sits there in the dark never ever doing anything useful other than providing confidence that it is THE store of value.
Who said anything about making it disappear? Drugs are illegal, not to make them go away - but so they can control them. Gman controls the drug trade on this planet - why do you think we have been in Afghanistan for the last 2 decades? We weren't there to fight terrorism, we were there to control the poppy fields. Now that synthetic opiates can be manufactured in a lab, we no longer need to be there. If BTC threatens Gman's power in any way, they will make it illegal - with the intent to control the market, just like drugs.
BTC will indeed outlive the US dollar, as will beanie babies....Gold has value because the most powerful people on the planet, want it. Central banks are buying at the fastest rate in decades, The Jamie Dimons of the world are buying it, Sovereign governments everywhere are buying it.... You don't see that with BTC - if and when the most powerful entities on the planet start buying it, I might reconsider its value.
Which leads me to your last point about whether goldbugs or BTC bugs are crazy. If the Central banks & governments all over the world came out tomorrow and announced they were paying top dollar for toenail clippings, would it be crazy to flush them, or save them? The people who run this planet, to quote George Carlin - are a club, and we aint in it. So when they want something, whatever that something is, has value.
Just one more investment vehicle created to defraud those gullible enough to buy it. I love the block-chain technology, but the rest of it can go pound sand. There is no value, just the perception created by those who offer it, and so on. Group think made this what it is today...good thing not everyone buys into it. if you want a store of value, buys something tangible...something that won't disappear as soon as you turn off the power.
I strongly suspect you are correct...But I do remain open to the idea there is Value in Bitcoin. This is why I am asking for the bullish case
I think it has value, just like any other Ponzi scheme!! As long people keep buying into the narrative it will keep going up. But as you mentioned in another post there are those who play the game, and then there are those who make the game. I still wish there was an easier to transport and anonymous alternative to fiat money.
After the example of Canadian government freezing personal property in banks, what do you think about a case for cryptocurrency? And keeping some money outside of the regular banking system? It appears quite arbitrary that the government can declare whoever to be not in the good books and seize their money?
Yes, Gman can freeze bank accounts, they can also outlaw Crypto - and if push comes to shove, they will - See #3 above. Keeping some assets outside the system is a must - Gold, Silver, Ammo, Canned food, a Garden, etc... - just can't put crypto on the list until someone can show me the value.
Your instinct is right :) although there is a case for blockchains and their exponential adoption I doubt it will be Bitcoin. CBDC will not happen the way people imagine in my view. In the end a company the size of Google apple or meta will provide the blockchain as a infrastructure and CBDC will piggybag. I won’t state my favorite in this game but there are some people/companies approaching it in a reasonable way. But I watch them like a tech company and not as a new currency. The cryptocurrency aspect of the blockchain is required to facilitate the decentralized allocation of resources - but it’s not a means by itself. Bitcoin Maxis are definitely some of the most childish people - or let’s say religious fanatics. It will be a sight to see when they have their chism and join maybe other projects - the mental gymnastics will be hilarious :)
Yes, by centralizing the block chain - there will be more control by whatever entity is running it…..CBDC is a when, not an if in my view…. Our overlords are far too addicted to the power coining money gives them to ever let that go private.
What if the Gman ….can’t stop it ?
Making something” illegal “ is one thing, making it disappear from use is entirely different.
Think drugs.
Even if the Gman created and released BTC into the wild ( highly unlikely!) that doesn’t mean they control it. It’s open source software.
Look. The “value” in anything is what someone is willing to pay for it. Er’body knows that. “Value” changes over time and markets of course. Old man yells at clouds …about the ridiculous “value” of TSLA, BTC, AMC- matters not. The current price reflects its underlying value.
Tulip mania. What a silly and oft repeated analogy. So Tulip bubble occurred and popped- gone forever, right. Tulips never regained their high/glory, right ? Fool me once… BTC has gone from zero $ in 2009 to about $20,000 today -14 Years later. 14 years and not just still kicking but thriving. Tulip was one rise, one bust, done forever. BTC has gone through many 70% drawdowns over the years and yet claws back to higher values over the long term. Explain how that is in any way analogous to Tulip Mania?
Currencies on average have about a 250 yr shelf life of being on top. How comfortable are you with USD continuing that role for the next 50,100 yrs? I’d wager you that BTC will outlive the USD as we know it. Unfortunately you won’t be around to pay and I won’t be alive to receive payment.
Gold bugs. I get it. Gold is a confidence asset just like BTC. Like BTC it’s ONLY reasonable use is store of value. It’s not priced at $1800/oz bc it’s pretty or used industrially . No it’s priced MUCH higher than it’s practical physical use cases. Gold is valuable ONLY bc it can’t be readily debased/inflated. And that is solely bc it’s rare and difficult to mine.
So BTC is crazy nonsense! You can’t “hold” it !!! Oh my ! As if that’s a prerequisite of value- do you “ hold” your USD ? Sure prob about 1% or less of what you own. The rest is a data entry on a computer at your bank etc. Do you snuggle up at night w your JNJ stock certificates ? It’s a data entry. Crazy? Imagine you are an alien visiting earth for the 1st time and watching the gold environment. First you see immense amounts of effort , machinery , labor being used to dig up millions of pounds of rock in dangerous locations across the world. Then tiny amounts of a yellow metal are extracted from this mess. Much more Money and time and effort is spent congealing this raw gold into minted bars and coins. These heavy items are then shipped across the world (w paid insurance) to gold dealers. Who then put them into safes and spend considerable effort in securing these small otherwise no-value, worthless coins. The dealer eventually sells this chunk of metal to Joe 6 pack. Joe forks over paper USD he’s earned by his own labor ,smiles, takes possession of these small gold coins. He then immediately places them in his own safe. The gold then sits there in the dark never ever doing anything useful other than providing confidence that it is THE store of value.
And you think BTC is crazy ?
Who said anything about making it disappear? Drugs are illegal, not to make them go away - but so they can control them. Gman controls the drug trade on this planet - why do you think we have been in Afghanistan for the last 2 decades? We weren't there to fight terrorism, we were there to control the poppy fields. Now that synthetic opiates can be manufactured in a lab, we no longer need to be there. If BTC threatens Gman's power in any way, they will make it illegal - with the intent to control the market, just like drugs.
BTC will indeed outlive the US dollar, as will beanie babies....Gold has value because the most powerful people on the planet, want it. Central banks are buying at the fastest rate in decades, The Jamie Dimons of the world are buying it, Sovereign governments everywhere are buying it.... You don't see that with BTC - if and when the most powerful entities on the planet start buying it, I might reconsider its value.
Which leads me to your last point about whether goldbugs or BTC bugs are crazy. If the Central banks & governments all over the world came out tomorrow and announced they were paying top dollar for toenail clippings, would it be crazy to flush them, or save them? The people who run this planet, to quote George Carlin - are a club, and we aint in it. So when they want something, whatever that something is, has value.
Appreciate hearing your views, thanks....